Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Pakistan’s society and economy are highly dependent on the surface groundwater resources of Indus River basin. This paper describes development implementation a daily System Model (IRSM) for Pakistan Basin Irrigation (IBIS) to examine potential impact reservoir sedimentation provincial water security. The model considers both physical management characteristics system. model’s performance in replicating allocation ratios is within 0.1% average modeling flow at barrages delivered irrigation canal commands agreement with recorded data (major barrage NSE 0.7). maximum volumetric error Tarbela Mangla reservoirs respectively 5.2% 8.8% mean annual inflow. showed that 2.3 km3 reduction storage volume since 1990 equates approximately 1.3 i.e., 4–5% deliveries, respectively, Punjab Sindh dry (Rabi) season. decline indicates without further augmentation system storage, Rabi season supplies will continue be impacted future. demonstrates suitability IRSM exploring long term planning operational rules associated impacts water, food energy security Pakistan.